Demographic transition theory and the Caribbean Society

Examine how the demographic transition model may be applied to the Caribbean society or named Caribbean society.

During the early years of human existence the average lifespan of a human life was short. During this period birth rates were high, while the growth was slow and the population was young. During the transitional period mortality and then fertility declined, causing population growth rates to first accelerate and then to slow again, moving toward low fertility, long life and an old population. The transition began in Europe during the 1800 with declining mortality. Based on the trend viewed by many population theorists it is now assumed that with the invention of new technology and the availability of healthcare and new vaccines this decline will continue until 2100.

The advent of the demographic transition theory explains the cycle of human population. This transition was not envisioned for Europe only. Rather it was considered as a rationale the explanation of world population history. This global demographic transition has brought momentous changes, reshaping the economic and demographic life cycles of individuals and restructuring populations. Since 1800, global population size has already increased by a factor of six and by 2100 will have risen by a factor of ten. There will then be50 times as many elderly, but only five times as many children; thus, the ratio of elders to children will have risen by a factor of ten. The length of life, which has already more than doubled, will have tripled, while births per woman will have dropped from six to two. In 1800, women spent about 70 percent of their adult years bearing and rearing young children, but that fraction has decreased in many parts of the world to only about 14 percent, due to lower fertility and longer life.

The demographic transition theory suggests that in low income agrarian societies tend to have a high rate of fertility. It also suggests that in low income country high fertility rate compensate for the high influx of birth. Mortality declines when fertility rate decline. The demographic theory also suggests that as fertility levels and mortality levels becomes equal, fertility become stable and mortality decrease. Mortality increases during bad times (drought, war and famine) and decreases during good times (time of plenty and prosperity). Like every theory many theorist have criticized the demographic transition theory. Many theorists have even put forward their own ideology on population growth and decline. Regardless of these efforts none have attained the wide acceptance like the demographic transition theory.

The essay on population published by Thomas Malthus in 1798 published According to a famous essay by Thomas Malthus, which sought to explain the dynamics of world population growth was no accident. During the period in which Thomas Malthus lived, the population was held in equilibrium with the slowly growing economy. Faster population growth would depress wages, resulting in mortality to rise due to famine, war or disease. The above stated conditions suggest misery. Malthus called this mortality response the “positive” check. Depressed wages would also cause postponement of marriage, resulting in prostitution and other vices, including contraception; this he called the “preventive” check. Since population could potentially grow more rapidly than the economy, it was always held in check by misery and vice, which were therefore the inevitable human lot. Economic progress could help only temporarily since population could soon grow to its new equilibrium level, where misery and vice would again hold it in check.

Malthus believed that through moral restraint and the postponement of marriage humans may control the rapid growth of world population. Malthus believed that these measures may result in avoidance of misery and death to human kind for at least preindustrial Europe. To a great extent Thomas Malthus was correct. Population was held weakly in equilibrium by the positive and preventive checks. When weather, disease or political disturbance knocked population out of equilibrium, real wages and rents reacted strongly, and the checks brought population slowly back to equilibrium.

In Western Europe in the centuries before 1800, marriage required the resources to establish and maintain a separate household, so age at .First marriage for women was late, averaging around 25 years, and a substantial share of women never married. Although fertility was high within marriage, the total fertility rate (TFR) was moderate overall at four to five births per woman. Mortality was also moderately high, with life expectancy at birth between 25 and 35 years,

this was heavily influenced by high mortality in infancy and childhood. Population growth rates were generally low, averaging 0.3 percent/year before 1700 in Western Europe, but sometimes rising above 1 percent in the nineteenth century. In Canada and the United States, marriage was much earlier because land was abundant, and population at. First grew rapidly, but then decelerated in the nineteenth century.

Outside of Europe and its offshoots, fertility and mortality were higher in the pre-transitional period, and change in fertility and mortality came later. Data on mortality or fertility are only occasionally available for third-world countries before World War II. In India in the late nineteenth century, life expectancy averaged in the low 20s and was highly variable, while

fertility was six or seven children per household. The classic demographic transition starts with mortality decline, followed after a time by reduced fertility, leading to an interval of .first increased and then decreased population growth and, an aging population. The first stage of mortality decline is due to reductions in contagious and infectious diseases that are spread by air or water. Starting with the development of the smallpox vaccine in the late eighteenth century, preventive medicine played a role in mortality decline in Europe. However, public health measures played an important role from the late nineteenth century, and some quarantine measures may have been effective in earlier centuries. Improved personal hygiene also helped as income rose and as the germ theory of disease became more widely known and accepted.

Another major factor in the early phases of growing life expectancy is improvements in nutrition. Famine mortality was reduced by improvements in storage and transportation that permitted integration of regional and international food markets, smoothing across local variations in agricultural output. Secular increases in incomes led to improved nutrition in childhood and throughout life. Better-nourished populations with stronger organ systems were better able to resist disease. Life expectancy is still positively associated with height in the industrial country populations, plausibly reacting childhood health conditions.

On a comparative scale, the high-income countries of the world have largely attained the potential mortality reductions due to reductions in infectious disease and increases in nutrition. In recent decades, the continuing reduction in mortality is due to reductions in chronic and degenerative diseases, notably heart disease and cancer . In the later part of the century, publicly

organized and funded biomedical research have played an increasingly important part, and the human genome project and stem cell research promise future gains. Many low-income populations did not begin the mortality transition until sometime in the twentieth century. However, they then made gains in life expectancy quite rapidly by historical standards. In India, life expectancy rose from around 24 years in 1920 to 62 years today, a gain of .48 years per calendar year over 80 years. In China, life expectancy braised from 41 in 1950–1955 to 70 in 1995–1999, a gain of 65 years per year over 45 years. Such rapid rates of increase in low-income countries will surely taper off as mortality levels approach those of the global leaders.

There is a range of views on where mortality is headed during the coming decades. On the optimistic side, offer a remarkable graph that plots the highest national female life expectancy attained for each calendar year from 1840 to 2000. The points fall close to a straight line, starting at 45 years in Sweden and ending at 85 years in Japan, with a slope of 2.4 years per decade. If we boldly extend the line forward in time, it reaches 97.5 years by mid-century and 109 years by 2100.

Between 1890 and 1920, marital fertility began to decline in most European provinces, with a median decline of about 40 percent from 1870 to 1930. The preceding decline in mortality may have been partly responsible, although it cannot explain the timing. Researched statistics have indicated that over the years the combination of fertility and mortality determines population growth.

According to the demographic transition theory, there are several stages in any given population structure. Stage one include mortality begins to decline while fertility remains high, mortality declines most at the youngest ages, causing an increase in the proportion of children in the population and raising child dependency ratios. During this phase, families find themselves with increasing numbers of surviving children. Both families and governments find it difficult to provide care or adequate social services to all concern. Social needs like education are not made available to all the members of the society.

Continuing within the line of demographic transition is stage two. This stage may last for an average 45- 50 years. As the rate of fecundity and fertility declines, the in which there is a dependency on the labour force by child also decline and soon fall below their pre-transition levels. The working-age population grows faster than the population as a whole, so the total dependency ratio declines. More employment is available for the masses. Some demographers and statisticians have shared their concerned of the possibility of a rapidly growing labor force in this phase. They share the concern that this may result in the rising of unemployment and the falling capital labor ratios. Others have stressed the economic advantages of having a large share of the population in its working years, calling these a demographic gift or bonus. In India, the bonus occurs between 1970 and 2015. If income per person of working age is not changed based on already made assumptions and realization, the decline in dependents per worker may itself raise per capita income by 22 percent, adding 0.5 percent per year to per capita income growth over the 45-year span. There is considerable controversy about whether this demographic bonus really affects economic development, continuing debates from the 1980s.

The assessment of the demographic transition theory points to a third stage. According to the theory within the third stage, populations lives longer when compared to stage one and two. This results in the rapid increase in the elderly population, while low fertility slows the growth of the working-age population. Many persons found within the labour force category delay having children thus decreasing the supply of workers within the labour force. The old-age dependency ratio rises rapidly, as does the total dependency ratio. If the elderly are supported by transfers, either from their adult children or from a public sector pension system supported by current tax revenues, then a higher total dependency ratio means a greater burden on the working-age population. An aged population results in only a few elderly saving. Pension gradually becomes useless as it has no additional support for survival of the elderly. In some societies, child dependency is low however elderly dependency has been on the increase.

During the 1950, the Least Developed Countries like the Caribbean had a higher fertility and higher mortality than the more Developed Countries, and change since then has been slower for them. The Least Developed Countries moved slowly out of the phase of rising youth dependency and entered the bonus phase around 1980. For these countries, the total dependency ratio is projected to fall sharply from 2000 to 2050. At the same time, the median age is projected to rise by nine years by 2050, from 18.1 to 27.1 years. After the third stage of the demographic transition, where birthrates began to drop rapidly and death rates continue to drop slowly. Coupled with Economic and social gains and lower infant mortality with a reduced desire for large families (in Europe, birthrates in some nations began to fall in the 19th century and spread across the region by the early 20th century).Came stage 4 of the transition model. This saw both birth and death rates having a balance. All this was visible in throughout Europe in the 1970’s which saw a low population growth rate.

The demographic transition theory was postulated by Warren Thompson after much assessment of the world’s demographic history. The theory was put forward by Thompson in 1929 who lived between (1887–1973). Thompson was inspired by noticeable changes observed in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the previous 200 years. The demographic transition theory suggested that each population experience four stages of transition. This theory focuses on how populations throughout the world namely European countries experience a high birth and death rates, this high death and birth rate gradually becomes low birth and death rates as a result of technological development.

Arguably so, the demographic transition model can be applied to the Caribbean islands. For example, due to the technological development of Barbados, high birth and death rates have been dramatically reduced over the past few years. In European societies during the nineteen century, growth was differentiated into three phases. The pre-industrial era and the early stages of industrial development both had high birth rates and death rates, producing a stable growing population. Phase two was developed due to the improvements in economic development and living standards. Therefore this Phase had falling mortality rates. However, fertility rates continued at a high level.

Further technological improvements and life expectancies resulted in the reduction of fertility rates. This led to stage three of the transition. Similarly, the first three stages of the demographic transition model are similar to the phases of the European societies in the 19th century. In the first stage high birth and death rates occur. In the second stage high birth rates and low death rates are prevalent. Both low birth and death rates are common in the third and fourth stages.

However there is a fluctuation in the birth and death rates in the fourth stage. Moreover this demographic transition theory can be applied to the Caribbean countries and in particular Barbados. The fertility rates in Barbados are relatively low, approximately 1.9 children per woman. Nevertheless, this was not always so. There has been fluctuation in the birth and death rates throughout the centuries due to various events such as slavery and the world wars. In 1829-1832 the birth per 1000 women was approximately 40.7 whereas the death rate was approximately 30.6 per 1000.

From a Caribbean Perspective stages of demographic transition can be identified easily. These stages include, stage 1 Early Slavery to the early 18th century. During these period European nations such as Spain, Britain, France and Holland established societies in the Caribbean between 1492 and the end of the 18th century. This era saw labour was seen as a major issue and the enslavement of Africans critical to economic accumulation. Keep in mind that the enslaved Africans lost their identity and were treated as property (chattel slavery). Based on research, there was a marked difference between the number of females and males being exported to the region.

Many historians postulate that between 1781 – 1798 the percentage of females shipped from Africa was 38%. During this stage it was noted that there was a period of high birth rates as children were seen as a form a labour. Plantation owners forced copulation between slaves. When coupled with the cultural practices of the enslaved Africans such as unstable unions and promiscuity, the workforce tended to reproduce itself. High death rates were due to the fact that there was suppressed expenditure on slaves to the extent of subsistence levels. Slaves were not allowed health care nor where they given good nutrients to prevent the prevalence of diseases.

This era saw a flurry of and racial prejudice – white cultural hegemony / supremacy – upon economic thinking which oftentimes led to subsistence levels being allocated below what was required to maintain general health. Many historians are of the view that those enslaved were generally malnourished and preyed upon by a no. of diseases related to malnutrition. In addition to this, food availability fluctuated seasonally and they experienced large periods of hunger after hurricanes, drought and major war. High death rates were also due to brutal and violent treatment (flogging), hanging and joint amputation – in instances of revolt.

After the stage one experience of the demographic transition period came Stage (2) two. Stage two could be considered as taking place during the late 18th century through to Emancipation (1700 – 1838). During this period a transition took place. No longer was the Caribbean region characterized by high birth rates and high death rates, which gives rise to low population growth. There was an era of High birth rates and low death rates. During this period there was an emergence of the anti-slavery sentiment. Land maroonage was the dominant form. Food for the labourers improved. Slaves were set free to the latter half and thus were able to provide staples for themselves.

With the improvement in nutrients and some social services came stage three within the Caribbean framework of the demographic transition model. This stage span from the period of emancipation through to 1880.This stage saw a decline in the economies of the region. no longer sugar was king. The profit yielded from sugar and the luxury of slave labour ended from as early as 1838. This period saw the expense of plantation owners increasing. Owners of large plantations had to employ indentured labourers from India and China. These labourers were supposedly a replacement of slave labour. Many slaves opted not to work for their former owner. Many ex-slaves became independent and ventured out on their in their own economic exercise.

After the third stage of the demographic transition had purportedly ended in 1880, came the fourth phase or stage. This stage last for an average of 40 years, 1880-1920. This stage was characterized large-scale emigration from the Caribbean to build the Panama Canal and to develop banana plantations in Central America, and to find agricultural work in the United States. This stage of Caribbean demographic transition saw several members of the labour force leaving the region. This resulted in several single parent and sibling families. In addition there seemed to have been a period of aging within the region. the young and the old remained as members of the region.

The final phase of the demographic transition of the Caribbean population structure began in 1921. Traits of this demographic transition lasted until 1960. During this period, a distinctive population growth was no longer determined by migration but by natural increase. Natural increase is the difference between birth and death within a given population. During the final stage of the demographic transition of the Caribbean there were steady declines in mortality, notably during the 1920’s. Fertility rate began to increase after World War II. According to, interestingly, the population transitional history of the non-British Caribbean countries differs in detail and timing only, from that outlined above.

With regards to large English speaking countries like Jamaica, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, the decline in mortality was linked to the cumulative effects of improvements in public health, sanitation, housing and medical facilities. In the inter-war years, advances in economic welfare played a negligible role since the region was suffering from prolonged depression. In addition, the inclusion of new technology made it easier to manage disease and the administration of much needed social services.

During this period there were observed declines in infant mortality rates. This decline was attributed to improved sanitation, better nursing practice and expanded general education. In the second case, the sharp increases in fertility observed after World War II were likely due to the same accumulating set of self-reinforcing health improvements that favourably affected mortality; along with an increasing prosperity resulting from the economic re-invention throughout the region which saw the moving away from colonial mono-crop staples (like sugar and cotton), and the increasing interest in international tourism, off shore banking services and export manufacturing by several Caribbean English speaking countries.

The reality is that just past the mid-point of the 20th century, most island nations had begun the demographic transition from higher to lower birth and death rates and reduced population throughout the Caribbean. Throughout the Caribbean region, mortality declines intensified as island health authorities made concerted efforts to target a few major diseases, these included tuberculosis, pneumonia, bronchitis, kidney disease and malaria. In a pattern common across the landscape of less developed countries (LDCs), no initiative was more successful than the postwar DDT (common name for the pesticide Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) campaign against malaria, “the great debilitator”, which sharply reduced death rates in Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and “most Caribbean countries”.

In addition to the above stated, the “widespread” fertility transition, has been observed 1 in almost all Caribbean islands since 1960. According to several demographers and sociologist, the fertility transition of the Caribbean has been attributed primarily to the many influences associated with modernization. These include the prevalence of birth control and government involvement in family planning programs, industrial development and rising female labour force participation improved health, delayed marriage and the diffusion of Western preferences for smaller households, expanded emigration in general and among women of child-bearing age in particular, and the nexus between mass education and the ease of communication in small island societies .

According to researched data, the Caribbean (including Latin America) has progressed through the demographic transition further than any other of the developing regions in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific. One move which have aided in the regulating of the demographic transition is an increase in the rate of post –emancipation migration. Today, the practice of migration throughout the region remains a cultural tradition that defines the West Indies and that islanders have “pursued for one and one-half centuries. This practiced began during the movement of nomads across the bearing straight through to the era of slavery down to the mass movement of people to Europe during the period of the industrial revolution. Several demographers regard this movement as a means of compensating for drought, famine, overgrazing and overpopulation.

One should consider however, although serving a purpose of regulating population size, that migration inversely affects natality and fertility in labour-exporting countries. It is also a given, that it directly affects these country’s labour force. In reference to the post-war Caribbean context, this meant that migration had hastened the natality and fertility transitions within emigrant societies (the Caribbean) and retards progress in immigrant societies. The assumed transmission occurs through the impact of age-sex imbalances induced by the widespread mobility of young women in their child-bearing years, on mating behaviour and family formation.

Based on the demographic transition theory, some societies have moved from high birth and death rates to relatively low birth and death rates as a result of technological development. The demographic transition model can be applied to the Caribbean islands. Due to the technological development of Barbados, high birth and death rates have been dramatically reduced. In European societies during the nineteen century, growth was differentiated into three phases. The pre-industrial era and the early stages of industrial development both had high birth rates and death rates, producing a stable growing population. Phase two was developed due to the improvements in economic development and living standards. Therefore this Phase had falling mortality rates. However, fertility rates continued at a high level. Further technological improvements and life expectancies resulted in the reduction of fertility rates. This led to phase (stage 3) three of the transition. Similarly, the first three stages of the demographic transition model are similar to the phases of the European societies in the 19th century.

In the first stage high birth and death rates occur. In the second stage high birth rates and low death rates are prevalent. Both low birth and death rates are common in the third and fourth stages. However there is a fluctuation in the birth and death rates in the fourth stage. Moreover this demographic transition theory can be applied to the Caribbean countries and in particular Barbados. The fertility rates in Barbados are relatively low, approximately 1.9 children per woman. Nevertheless, this was not always so. There has been fluctuation in the birth and death rates throughout the centuries due to various events such as slavery and the world wars. In 1829-1832 the birth per 1000 women was approximately 40.7 whereas the death rate was approximately 30.6 per 1000.

                                     

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